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A “Greenshoot” Leading Economic Indicator

By: Myles, August 19th, 2009

Here at MarylandCommercialTitle.com we have reported on much of the bad news since way back in December 2007 (when the markets started to tumble and, ultimately, crash). Now, just maybe things are starting to turn for the better.

As noted previousy, the American Institute of Architects Billing Index is typically considered a LEADING economic indicator. Translated, that means that when we begin to see positive movement in the AIA Index, good news is not too far off on the construction side of things some 9 months to a  year off (1st & 2nd Quarter 2010).

More specifically, architecture firms saw a small increase in the number of new projects they took on in July 2009, a possible sign the credit crunch could be loosening for developers and builders across the country. Here are the actual numbers:

  • The AIA’s Architecture Billings Index – a monthly survey of projects on the boards for its member firms —  increased five points to 43.1 in July 2009.

  • That’s up from 37.7 points in June 2009, a figure which had fallen five points from May 2009.

  • Billings have fluctuated greatly since hitting a high of 59 points in June 2007.

  • The Index hit its lowest spot at 33.3 points in January 2009.

But there are still several challenges ahead facing the building industry, including a lack of financing for new building projects. Many agree that the federal stimulus bill has done little to improve the industry’s outlook.

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