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A Very Negative Leading Economic Indicator

By: Myles, February 18th, 2009

The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) dropped to a historic low in January 2009.

Because there is typically a nine- to 12-month lag between an architect billing a developer and that developer spending money on construction, the billings index is considered a leading economic indicator of nonresidential construction activity.

AIA compiled the calculated January’s 2009 overall ABI rating as 33.3, down from the 34.1 mark in December (Rating of 50 is Average)

The numbers show a rapidly deteriorating situation:

  • By comparison, when the economic crisis first hit its full stride in September 2008, the national ABI rating stood at 41.4, down sharply from the 47.6 mark in August 2008.

  • For the south region, which includes the

    Washington area, the January score was 34.4, compared to 35.5 for December 2008. In September 2008, the south region’s score stood at 44.1.

Key January 2009 ABI highlights:Regional averages:

  • West — 38.3

  • Midwest — 34.6

  • South — 34.4

  • Northeast — 29.8

Sector index breakdown:

  • Mixed practice — 39.6

  • Commercial/industrial — 33.8

  • Multifamily residential — 29.5

New project inquiries index: 43.5 (50 is Average)

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2 Responses to “A Very Negative Leading Economic Indicator”

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  2. Short Sale Realtor Says:

    Interesting article. I’m a real estate agent in Arizona myself, and things are pretty difficult around here. I’m grateful I have also been able to find a way to stay in the business

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